1. WILL BAD NEWS STILL BE “GOOD NEWS” IN 2021? (Convey on extra Stimulus packages!)
2. Regardless of market report highs we don’t see GOOD JUSTIFIED FUNDEMENTALS (Fed lodging, Vaccines & Stimulus Packages vs SP500 22-26X earnings).
3. Our advice is most portfolio safety into February.
Many analysts suggest sector rotation: Many 2020 winners aren’t more likely to outperform as properly in 2021.
No matter your danger preferences, treasured metals ought to shine Q1 2021 as gold has moved again to previous buying and selling vary of 1850 to 2000!
12/7 MOC: DJI 30069 SPX 3691 NAS 12519
TSLA: 704 S1 660 S2 630 R1 720 R2 934
BTC: 29.5K R1 30K R2 36K S1 28K S2 26K S3 22K
MARK YOUR CALENDAR KEY DATES
Jan 4/5, 20/21
Commodity Buying and selling
Gold + Astro Buying and selling Purchase on dips $2000 Coming AGAIN by Chinese language New 12 months P1 1925 P2 2000.
Silver + Astro is mildly optimistic R1 30
Copper 3.40-3.65 Intermediate time period goal achieved.
Oil $45-52 Intermediate time period goal achieved.
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: bitcoin-price-kevin-oleary-regulations-institutional-investors-weep-cryptocurrency
KEY DATES: January 4/5 20/21
DJIA: 30533 PIVOT S1 30000 S2 29800 S3 29500
SPX: 3750 PIVOT S1 3666 S2 3600
NASDAQ: 12850 PIVOT
GOLD: 1880 SUPPORT R1 1900 R2 1925 R3 2000
SILVER: 24 SUPORT 30 RESISTANCE
OIL: 46 PIVOT R1 50 R2 52
COPPER: 3.50 PIVOT R1 3.60 R2 3.80 R3 4.00
US 10 yr WATCH +/-
CNY 6.50 <>6.66 DUAL PIVOTS
DXY 90 PIVOT
VIX 22 <>23 DUAL PIVOTS
2020 CLOSE: DJIA 30606 SPX 3756 & NASDAQ 12888
2019 CLOSE: DJIA 28508 SPX 3231 & NASDAQ 8823
2018 CLOSE: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635
2017 CLOSE: DJIA 24719 SPX 2673 & NASDA 6903
AFUND Honest Worth GOLD $1715.
Cut back Danger and Give attention to Capital Preservation:
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
We proceed to suggest properly protected portfolios into February: SELL/STOP STOCKS you wouldn’t purchase at present costs, write Lined Calls & scale back margin/elevate money ranges.
Preserve an inventory of shares to purchase AFTER a correction.
If this isn’t upcoming quickly, then we’ll stay extremely liquid and watch for the music to cease or Godot to reach, whichever comes first.
In any other case, we plan to solely selectively add shares in Q1 2021 in our favourite sectors e.g. treasured metals, mining and leisure.
The Opposite View
On three fronts – political, financial, and well being – some uncertainty stays, but many Wall Streeters profess bullish sentiments.
However the query for traders is whether or not the uncertainty is rising or falling, and if falling throughout all three classes – a superb signal for shares.
HW: Time will inform.
Favourite Q1 2021 Sectors
Leisure, Mining, [Cyber] Safety & Know-how (Undervalued & Extremely Scalable).
At the moment we’re watching Choose Well being Care (decrease price/higher outcomes & Distressed Investing (New).
Inventory choice is necessary. Each time doable, we want to suggest shares sporting robust money flows, sound steadiness sheets & rising dividends.
Select your favourite shares and patiently bid for them.
4. 3. “Gold has not gone up as a result of there’s a international epidemic, however as a result of international liquidity has shot up.”
5. Adrian Day, head, Adrian Day Asset Administration
6. HW; We’re within the camp the bull case for each treasured metals and base metals turning into stronger 2021.
1.Regardless of being overvalued, proudly owning gold and silver into the Chinese language New 12 months ought to reward traders .
Given beginner gold traders have little data of the trade and lots of are accustomed to Tech valuations, is there an higher restrict to Gold or Silver pricing? Perhaps not!
Conservative traders would settle for $2200-2300, whereas extra aggressive gold and silver bugs beforehand changed their earlier 2000+ gold targets with 2500-3000+; silver $30 to $50.
Silver $24 assist with $30 overhead resistance. Many analysts count on $30 Silver & 2000 gold by 2021 Steel Ox Chinese language New 12 months.
There are such a lot of good buys within the treasured metallic area relying in your time-frame & danger/reward wishes.
See WSNW & latest AFUND luncheons, conferences & Webinars [Past Webinars have been posted on our YouTube channel] for some investing concepts which may be properly worthwhile upcoming in 2021.
Subsequent up: AFUND Mining & Leisure Funding Picks for 2021 Webinar Tickets, Mon, Jan 11, 2021 at 12:00 PM | Eventbrite
Gold: Essentially Indian & Chinese language demand ought to develop coupled with excessive international investor curiosity.
Gold & Silver will stay favourite sections into Q1 2021 with longtime Gold bugs comfortable that extra generalist traders are becoming a member of the occasion:
As well as, many main brokerage homes have preserve ~$2000+ worth targets in 2021.
Given it’s below allotted by most funding packages, this offers it much more potential room to run, particularly if/when inflation fears resurface &/or US greenback retains falling!
We consider gold & silver valuations will largely sport properly above Honest Worth into the 12 months of the White Steel Ox (2021).
Whereas basically gold is presently overvalued, silver is presently nearer to Honest Worth. Simply as they had been undervalued for a very long time, it CAN and is more likely to be overvalued for a LONG time.
Therefore we suggest a full and over weighted treasured metals portfolio allocation.
Nonetheless, we advise long run treasured metallic traders to additionally take note of inventory choice.
Gold stays low-cost geopolitical disaster insurance coverage.
For traders who can’t or is not going to purchase the $US foreign money in addition to traders who want to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ publicity, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
As soon as once more some traders are hedging report fairness costs by shopping for gold.
Low actual rates of interest may be very optimistic for gold in addition to low international bond yields makes gold a pretty different danger mitigation hedge.
We count on the gold/silver ratio ~73 to drop ~63 as international economies & clear vitality demand improves in 2021
We count on treasured metallic shares to outperform bodily gold & silver in 2021.
Gold FV $1715 = Commodity FV: 1600 + Foreign money FV: 1710 + Inflation Steel FV: 1600 + Disaster FV: 1950.
INVESTORS: We plan to remain LONG in Q1 2021.
Be aware: Our present Honest Worth for Silver is $24-$26.
4. Shortly we’ll start a brand new characteristic: SEASONED SPECULATOR. It will typically be a really excessive danger/excessive reward market choose. These picks are for speculative allocation, advisable to be purchased in teams of 5 to 10 stocks. Place measurement 10%-20% of your speculative allocation, i.e. “cash you’ll be able to afford to lose with out altering your life fashion.”
5. “That is general a market that’s setting the stage for 2021 and taking a look at an economic system that’s going to normalize, albeit at a in all probability slower tempo than initially projected,”
Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist, Prudential Monetary.
HW: For certain.
“We’re going to proceed to see a push larger.”
Peter Essele, head of portfolio administration, Commonwealth Monetary Community’s
HW: How excessive is Up? How quickly actuality?
“The market, general, doesn’t appear overbought.”
Tim Ghriskey, chief funding strategist, Inverness Counsel
HW: Appearances may be deceiving, can they not?
1. 7.READER: Ought to I purchase the correction of Tesla?
2. HW: Whereas it has examined $500-550, it’s essential to consider it’s the nice firm since sliced bread
3. You don’t thoughts P/E > 1000
4. READER: Thanks. I did not know PE > 1000
5. HW: At the moment 1349 [1209 when asked].
6. READER: Are you saying Gold to return to $2000 earlier than lunar new yr? I ought to promote it as quickly because it hits 2000?
7. HW: Is dependent upon whether or not you’re holding gold as a commerce or a hedge. If the previous, promote or cease. If the latter, NO.
READER: Throughout 2021 do you see copper doable for $4.00/lb?
HW: Attainable, don’t have any actual view besides now in 3.40 to three.65 buying and selling vary and copper has good fundamentals.